The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition
From Beijing’s point of view, the "century of humiliation" is over. China views its rise not as an aggressive expansion, but as a restoration of its historical status as a great power. They see the United States as a declining power (what Rudd calls the "America in Decline" narrative) that is desperately trying to contain China’s growth through trade wars, technological embargoes, and military encirclement. Beijing believes the U.S. is unwilling to accept a multipolar world where China holds equal status.
Rudd argues that the deterioration of the U.S.-China relationship is driven by two conflicting narratives that are talking past one another. the avoidable war pdf
"The Avoidable War" by Kevin Rudd, published through the Asia Society Policy Institute , is a series of reports and a book detailing the rise of U.S.-China tensions and proposing a framework for "managed strategic competition" to prevent conflict. The multi-volume series, often cited as a "long article" or comprehensive report, includes detailed analysis on the Thucydides Trap and Chinese foreign policy, with primary documents available from 2019–2021. Access the primary reports directly at the Asia Society .
Below is a comprehensive original article based on the core theses of Rudd’s work, designed to give you the key insights you would find in the book or a summary document. The Avoidable War: The Case for Managed Strategic
Washington views the last 40 years of engagement with China as a failed experiment. The prevailing U.S. narrative is that while America welcomed China into the global economy, Beijing responded with intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, and military aggression in the South China Sea. Washington now views China not just as a competitor, but as a systemic threat to the rules-based international order.
If you're interested in reading a summary or review of the book, I can suggest some online resources: Beijing believes the U
: Identifying non-negotiable boundaries (e.g., regarding Taiwan, cyberattacks, or the South China Sea) that, if crossed, would likely trigger a military response.